Be Better Citizens (UK)

In a week where scientists think we’ve reached an unwelcome global tipping point, here’s something to make you think we should try harder.

OK, so this is embarrassing! I’ve been labouring under a rather large misunderstanding about global energy, the only partial salve being that almost everyone else is under the same misconception. The good news, for once, is that this is GOOD NEWS.

I’d assumed that if the world requires 100 million barrels of oil a day to run, then we need to replace all 100 million barrels worth of energy with renewables and nuclear energy, i.e. very low CO₂ alternatives. This is completely wrong, and not by a small margin. The fundamental issue is that not all sources of energy are equal. We use most fossil fuels to burn to create heat, and this is used to drive our machines, cars, power stations, foundries, etc. The practical efficiency…

A good predictor of a country's wealth (per capita GDP) is how much energy it uses. Climate and the type of economy a country has play a significant part. Macao is an outlier, located in the tropics and with a significant tourist industry based on gambling, which results in a very high GDP compared to its energy use. But generally, you need to use a lot of energy to produce wealth.

The reason we are struggling to kick our fossil fuel habit is that to do so by simply reducing our energy use is the same as reducing our wealth. Look at the issues facing the UK at the moment, with underfunded services all around us. There is no way we are going to make our country significantly poorer, however strong the warnings about future climate threats. Current industry estimates are that: "Global oil supply to the market, is projected…

We are so unlikely to fix this issue because of two features of human behaviour and the way they have shaped our current societies.... Here's where we are:

We're making progress, particularly in generating electrical energy from renewables and nuclear. However, it's worth keeping an eye on the larger picture, because electricity generation is a small proportion of overall global energy use. We need vast quantities of energy to manufacture our infrastructure, particularly concrete and steel; to heat our homes and to manufacture fertiliser to help feed ourselves.

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The image below (from Our World in Data) shows how global energy sources changed over 25 years from 1999 to 2024. The good news is that renewable energy has more than doubled. Unfortunately, our global energy demand continues to rise, so the percentage of energy supplied by fossil fuels in 1999 was 87.5% and in 2024, it had only fallen by…

With 'villains' like Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, it's easy to see why we believe they are the problem. However, a different framing should allow us to acknowledge that they are brilliant opportunists. In May 2021, Dominic Cummings (another villain for many, but an introspective one) said,

“Any system that leaves people with the choice between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn is, obviously, a system that's gone extremely badly wrong”.

He also described it as “completely crackers” that someone like him—and Boris Johnson—could have held such senior positions in government, suggesting deep flaws in the political system.

In America, the tribal divisions that Trump has exploited so successfully are at the root of the problem, not Trump himself. If we allow political systems like these to continue, why would we not get the politicians we deserve? They are simply behaving completely rationally and 'playing the game' to the best of…